The market may remain range bound as investors may stay on the sideline ahead of the onset of Q4 March 2008 earnings reporting season. Analysts will be closely watching what the company managements have to say about the outlook for the year ending March 2009 (FY 2009). Analysts will also scrutinize disclosures that companies may make regarding foreign exchange derivatives products that they have bought on the advice of their bankers. A steep decline in the value of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc hit Indian corporates which have used these two currencies (Yen and Franc) extensively to swap their rupee denominated debt.
As regards Q4 March 2008 results, Morgan Stanley expects 23% growth in net earnings of 104 out of 108 firms in its Indian coverage universe in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.
Good results are expected from the telecom sector on the back of strong growth in new subscribers additions. Infrastructure and engineering firms, too, are seen reporting decent numbers in Q4 March 2008 on the back of healthy order book positions. The performance of auto firms is likely to be sluggish due to muted volume growth and rise in input costs.
A depreciation of the rupee against the dollar is likely to drive good results from the IT sector on a sequential basis in Q4 March 2008 over Q3 December 2007, though the focus here is on guidance for the year ending March 2009 from IT bellwether Infosys Technologies. Infosys guidance will give investors a sense of the effect of the weakening US economy on technology spending by companies there. Infosys unveils Q4 results on Tuesday, 15 April 2008.
Prospects of further outflow by foreign funds to offset losses incurred by them in the US sub-prime mortgage market continue to weight on the market sentiment. In the calendar year so far, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 11808.70 crore (till 4 April 2008), to offset their huge losses in the US sub-prime mortgage market. As per provisional data, FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 7.27 crore on Tuesday, 8 April 2008.
As far as domestic liquidity is concerned, inflows to equity mutual funds and unit linked insurance plans (with high weightage for equity) have slowed after the sharp setback on the bourses in the past two months. As per provisional data, domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 447.79 crore on Tuesday, 8 April 2008.
Asian stocks edged lower today, 9 April 2008, after Washington Mutual Inc, the largest US savings and loan firm, said it expected a large quarterly loss. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed some of the central bankers saw the possibility of a prolonged and severe US economic downturn. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, Japan, and Singapore were down by between 0.16% to 1.5%.
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